Post-Brexit Free Trade Would Still See U.K. Insurance Services Exports Fall 19%: Think Tank

U.K. financial-services exports to a European Union could be 59 percent reduce after Brexit, even if Prime Minister Theresa May secures a free-trade agreement, according to a Centre for European Reform.

“Any arrangement that sees a U.K. leave a singular marketplace will fundamentally lead to new barriers to services exports from a U.K. to a EU,” a consider tank’s Sam Lowe wrote in a report. “The impact of these barriers will change by sector, with rarely regulated industries, such as financial services, being some-more affected.”

Among other industries, British exports of word and grant services would be 19 percent reduce underneath a free-trade agreement, while law, accountancy and associated veteran services would see a 10 percent drop, a researcher said. Britain now exports about 23.6 billion pounds ($30.1 billion) value of financial services annually to a rest of a EU, that a think-tank estimates could tumble to only 9.8 billion pounds if EU membership is transposed by a free-trade agreement.

“Any new post-Brexit barriers to U.K. services exports to a EU will have second-order disastrous consequences for jobs, investment and a taxation take in a U.K.,” Lowe wrote. “While these consequences are unfortunate, if a U.K. is to extricate itself from a singular market, they should be noticed as an unavoidable effect of British domestic decisions.”

The Centre for European Reform describes itself as a “pro-European though not uncritical” consider tank.